Dist Prof Peter Charles Bonest Phillips

FBA, FRSNZ, BA, MA, Ph.D (London)


Since 1992, Peter has held a part-time position in the Department of Economics at the University of Auckland and visits the Department two or three times a year. He is currently Sterling Professor of Economics and Professor of Statistics at Yale University, where he has been since 1979. He held previous positions at the University of Essex (1972-1976) and the University of Birmingham (1976-1979), where he was Head of the Department of Econometrics and Social Statistics.

Peter's main research interests are in econometrics, time series, financial econometrics, panel data models, multivariate analysis and empirical macroeconomics. His work on finite sample theory, continuous time, trending time series, unit roots and cointegration, spurious regression, financial bubble detection, and partially identified models have subsequently developed into major fields of scientific inquiry and influenced applied research in economics, finance and more widely in the social sciences. His most widely cited articles deal with general methods of unit root testing and cointegration estimation in time series. He has developed powerful methods for testing for the presence of bubbles in asset prices and real time bubble detection methods which are now widely used by central banks.

Peter is the Founding Editor of the Cambridge Journal, Econometric Theory and Founding Editor of the Cambridge Advanced Texbook Series, Themes in Modern Econometrics. He has an extended family fellowship of some 90 Ph.D students many of whom are now prominent econometricians.

Research | Current

Peter is currently working on econometric modeling of climate change, functional data analysis with nonstationary time series and panels, panel data modeling with random coefficients, and trend determination by machine learning methods. 


D.Univ (York, Hon); D.Phil (Cyprus, Hon)

Fellow: Econometric Society, American Statistical Association, American Academy of Arts and Sciences, Institute of Mathematical Statistics, Society of Financial Econometrics, International Association of Applied Econometrics, Modeling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand.

Distinguished Fellow:  New Zealand Association of Economists

Corresponding Fellow: British Academy

New Zealand Medal in Science and Technology

New Zealand Economist of the Year (2000)

Thomson Reuters Citation Laureate (2013)

Areas of expertise

Econometrics, Applied economics, Financial econometrics, Time series analysis, Applied macroeconomics

Selected publications and creative works (Research Outputs)

  • Tao, Y., Phillips, P. C. B., & Yu, J. (2019). Random coefficient continuous systems: Testing for extreme sample path behavior. JOURNAL OF ECONOMETRICS, 209 (2), 208-237. 10.1016/j.jeconom.2019.01.002
  • Wang, W., Phillips, P. C. B., & Su, L. (2019). The heterogeneous effects of the minimum wage on employment across states. ECONOMICS LETTERS, 174, 179-185. 10.1016/j.econlet.2018.11.002
    URL: http://hdl.handle.net/2292/46111
  • Yu, P., & Phillips, P. C. B. (2018). Threshold regression asymptotics: From the compound Poisson process to two-sided Brownian motion. ECONOMICS LETTERS, 172, 123-126. 10.1016/j.econlet.2018.08.039
  • Shi, S., Phillips, P. C. B., & Hurn, S. (2018). CHANGE DETECTION AND THE CAUSAL IMPACT OF THE YIELD CURVE. JOURNAL OF TIME SERIES ANALYSIS, 39 (6), 966-987. 10.1111/jtsa.12427
  • Storelvmo, T., Heede, U. K., Leirvik, T., Phillips, P. C. B., Arndt, P., & Wild, M. (2018). Lethargic Response to Aerosol Emissions in Current Climate Models. Geophysical Research Letters, 45 (18), 9814-9823. 10.1029/2018GL078298
  • Phillips, P. C. B., & Shi, S.-P. (2018). FINANCIAL BUBBLE IMPLOSION AND REVERSE REGRESSION. Econometric Theory, 34 (04), 705-753. 10.1017/S0266466617000202
    URL: http://hdl.handle.net/2292/42983
  • Cho, J. S., Park, M.-H., & Phillips, P. C. B. (2018). Practical Kolmogorov–Smirnov Testing by Minimum Distance Applied to Measure Top Income Shares in Korea. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 36 (3), 523-537. 10.1080/07350015.2016.1200983
    URL: http://hdl.handle.net/2292/44894
  • Bykhovskaya, A., & Phillips, P. C. B. (2018). Boundary Limit Theory for Functional Local to Unity Regression. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 39 (4), 523-562. 10.1111/jtsa.12285
    URL: http://hdl.handle.net/2292/41097

Contact details

Primary office location

Level 6, Room 6107
New Zealand

Web links